Our Perspectives

Macro View

Sine of the Times More downside risk for rates?

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Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly
Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.

Market Perspectives

The Monetary Illusion

Quantitative easing will likely lower living standards in the long term.

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Weekly Macro View

Sine of the Times

Powerful secular and fundamental forces at work signal that the risk to U.S. interest rates remains to the downside.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - April 2015

How high yield bonds and bank loans can help investors position for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate tightening cycle.

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Media Appearances

The Street: Guggenheim's Scott Minerd on March Jobs Report & Weak Inflation

Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Global CIO Scott Minerd explains to The Street's Scott Gamm why he doesn’t put too much stock in month-to-month job numbers and why the inflation rate doesn't necessarily need to reach 2% in order for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates.

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Portfolio Strategy

The ABCs of ABS: Opportunities in Asset-Backed Securities

In the search for yield, ABS offers an opportunity to generate higher returns through rigorous analysis, unaccompanied by additional credit or interest-rate risk.

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Latest Videos

Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd and his investment team share insights on investment opportunities around the world, U.S. monetary policy and new areas of economic development in this series of videos and media appearances.


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Recent Perspectives

April 24, 2015

Sine of the Times

For the past 30 years, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have shown a clear downward linear trend, falling from over 10 percent in 1985 to less than 2 percent today. If we assume the secular, linear downward trend in yields will continue in the near term, the model currently predicts rates will bottom at 0.82 percent in March 2016. I am not necessarily predicting that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields will test zero, but there are many powerful secular and fundamental forces at work that signal the risk to U.S. interest rates remains to the downside.

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April 14, 2015

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - April 2015

How high yield bonds and bank loans can help investors position for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate tightening cycle.

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April 10, 2015

‘It’s the Weather…!’

Severe weather conditions have had a profound impact on economic activity in the United States. When you look at the data, the winter ravages in first quarter are clear. Consumer spending declined in December and January, and was basically flat in February, while nonfarm payrolls were up by just 126,000 in March—the smallest gain since December 2013. Based on our analysis of retail sales, industrial production, and government spending, I wouldn’t be surprised to see U.S. economic growth near zero or even negative in the first quarter.

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March 26, 2015

The Monetary Illusion

As economic growth returns again to Europe and Japan, the prospect of a synchronous global expansion is taking hold. Or, then again, maybe not. In a recent research piece published by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, global economic growth, as measured in nominal U.S. dollars, is projected to decline in 2015 for the first time since 2009, the height of the financial crisis. In fact, the prospect of improvement in economic growth is largely a monetary illusion.

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March 20, 2015

Euro: Parity Like It’s 1999

While Europe stands to benefit as the euro nears parity, the U.S. economy faces some tough sledding in the weeks ahead due to seasonal distortions. In the early months of 2014, key economic data points were negatively impacted by an extended winter cold snap and I expect a similar scenario to play out in 2015. However, the prospects for U.S. equities and credit remain strong this year and recent weakness represents a buying opportunity.

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March 12, 2015

This Too Shall Pass

Investors closely following the recent daily convulsions in the financial markets could be prone to overreaction. It never ceases to amaze me how a few days of sell-off in the stock market—or a modest back-up in rates, for that matter—can have everybody talking about bear markets. Looking beyond the myopic churn and burn, the important macro indicators remain positive, and nothing has occurred to fundamentally alter our positive outlook for equities or credit.

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March 05, 2015

The Great Monetary Expansion

While the United States is potentially headed toward a period marred by winter distortions, accommodative monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China, which cut its benchmark deposit and lending interest rates by 25 basis points last Saturday, provided further evidence—if any was needed—that the global economy will remain flush with liquidity for some time to come. The takeaway from this is that the great global monetary expansion is far from over and the outlook for stocks remains positive.

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February 26, 2015

Rate Hike Rally

The period before the Federal Reserve raises rates is historically a great time to invest in U.S. equities and credit. Over the past six tightening periods since 1980, the S&P 500 has returned 23.5 percent on average in the nine months prior to the first rate increase, and high-yield bonds and bank loans have outperformed investment-grade bonds by 4.0 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

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February 19, 2015

The Glass Ceiling on Rates

Once the Federal Reserve commences down the road of raising rates, how far will they ultimately go? Based on research we’ve conducted on the impact of higher rates on U.S. debt burden, it appears the terminal value for the federal funds rate—the point at which the Fed stops tightening in a cycle—is around 2.5 to 3 percent, a lot lower than many people expect.

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February 13, 2015

When Patience Disappears

Market observers keen to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next move are wise to follow the trail of verbal breadcrumbs laid down by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a policymaker I hold in high regard. When Fed policy seems uncertain or even inert, Dr. Bullard’s public statements have historically been a Rosetta stone for deciphering the Fed’s next move.

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