Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.


 
Market Perspectives

Rates Must Rise to Avert Next Crisis

Policymakers have created a Wicksellian dilemma where investment spurred by low interest rates is driving economic growth, but these inefficient investments support growth at the expense of lower productivity in the economy.

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Macro View

A Painful but Healthy Adjustment for Risk Assets

The source of the current market correction is the massive misalignment of exchange rates, which finds its roots in quantitative easing.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - July 2015

The energy sector represents an attractive opportunity to invest in high yielding securities, but investors must consider the sector specific first- and second-order effects of depressed energy prices.

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Portfolio Strategy

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

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Latest Videos

Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd and his investment team share insights on investment opportunities around the world, U.S. monetary policy and new areas of economic development in this series of videos and media appearances.

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Recent Perspectives

August 24, 2015

A Painful but Healthy Adjustment for Risk Assets

The recent global equity market selloff reflects a long-awaited—and I believe ultimately healthy—market correction. A number of commentators speculated that after Monday morning’s sharp decline in U.S. stocks, the intra-day reversal indicated that we reached a bottom. In the very short run, I would agree. However, longer term, neither fundamental nor technical data support that we have reached the levels of capitulation associated with the end of a market correction.

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August 21, 2015

Pressure Mounts on China to Act

More bad news out of Asia: Chinese manufacturing conditions are back at the same levels as they were at the height of the financial crisis in 2009, a clear sign that China’s economy is slowing. We all know the dramatic steps that were necessary to revive the Chinese economy in 2009—a 4 trillion renminbi (RMB) stimulus package, equivalent to about 12 percent of China’s annual gross domestic product at the time. China will need to take drastic action again, and to a greater degree than it has done in recent weeks.

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August 17, 2015

Fundamental Truths

Last week, China loosened control of its currency, resulting in its biggest one-day loss in two decades, compounded by additional losses over the following days. As of this writing, the renminbi has depreciated by close to 3 percent since the start of last week. This “surprise” move roiled markets and triggered concern that other central banks would follow suit, but the reality is that the fundamentals were so overwhelming that the People’s Bank of China’s action was practically unavoidable.

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August 07, 2015

Keep Your Powder Dry

Market volatility tends to move higher in late summer as trading volumes get thinner. During these testing times, economic news tends to have a bigger psychological impact, not just on investors, but also on consumer confidence. Recent data points highlight just how fragile consumer sentiment can be.

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July 31, 2015

China's Dilemma: Is it 1987 or 1929?

Whether the current period becomes known as China’s version of 1929’s Black Thursday in the United States or a much healthier scenario analogous to 1987’s Black Monday, now depends very much on the strategy its policymakers adopt over the next few months. For China’s sake, I hope it is the latter, but at this point investors should take note that the world’s second-largest economy could just as likely find itself at the epicenter of this century’s greatest equity market correction.

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July 21, 2015

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

Read Report


July 17, 2015

Rates Must Rise to Avert Next Crisis

Policymakers have created a Wicksellian dilemma where investment spurred by low interest rates is driving economic growth, but these inefficient investments support growth at the expense of lower productivity in the economy.

Read More


July 15, 2015

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - July 2015

The energy sector represents an attractive opportunity to invest in high yielding securities, but investors must consider the sector specific first- and second-order effects of depressed energy prices.

Read Report


July 06, 2015

Staring Into an Abyss

With a resounding "NO" vote on the Greek referendum to accept the terms of Europe's proposed "bailout," market pundits are out in force talking about the coming turmoil. I think investors and policymakers alike would be wise to step back and put this unexpected outcome into perspective for the long term.

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June 25, 2015

Sunny with a Chance of Turbulence

Despite the fact that returns across U.S. investment categories are pretty dismal year to date, markets are pricing optimistically and it seems the sunshine has brought growth back to the U.S. economy. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 280,000 increase in employment in May. Additionally, building permits rose 11.8 percent in May, better than the 3.5 percent decline forecast by economists, while the pace of existing home sales hit its fastest rate since late 2009. Taking everything into account, the likelihood that the U.S. economy will suffer a recession in the next year or two would appear to be extremely remote. Still, seemingly isolated events could yet sour the mood.

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