Our Perspectives

Macro View

The Great Monetary Expansion Winter Distortions Won’t Blight Outlook

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Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly
Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.

Market Perspectives

Europe Must Act Now

Things in Europe are bad and policymakers appear already to have fallen behind the curve.

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Weekly Macro View

The Great Monetary Expansion

While winter weather will likely distort first-quarter economic data, accommodative monetary policy around the world means the long-term outlook remains positive.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - January 2015

A solid run of domestic data has set the United States apart from a beleaguered world.

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Media Appearances

CNBC: Good Run Ahead for the US Economy

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Portfolio Strategy

The ABCs of ABS: Opportunities in Asset-Backed Securities

In the search for yield, ABS offers an opportunity to generate higher returns through rigorous analysis, unaccompanied by additional credit or interest-rate risk.

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Latest Videos

Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd and his investment team share insights on investment opportunities around the world, U.S. monetary policy and new areas of economic development in this series of videos and media appearances.


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Recent Perspectives

March 05, 2015

The Great Monetary Expansion

While the United States is potentially headed toward a period marred by winter distortions, accommodative monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China, which cut its benchmark deposit and lending interest rates by 25 basis points last Saturday, provided further evidence—if any was needed—that the global economy will remain flush with liquidity for some time to come. The takeaway from this is that the great global monetary expansion is far from over and the outlook for stocks remains positive.

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February 26, 2015

Rate Hike Rally

The period before the Federal Reserve raises rates is historically a great time to invest in U.S. equities and credit. Over the past six tightening periods since 1980, the S&P 500 has returned 23.5 percent on average in the nine months prior to the first rate increase, and high-yield bonds and bank loans have outperformed investment-grade bonds by 4.0 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

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February 19, 2015

The Glass Ceiling on Rates

Once the Federal Reserve commences down the road of raising rates, how far will they ultimately go? Based on research we’ve conducted on the impact of higher rates on U.S. debt burden, it appears the terminal value for the federal funds rate—the point at which the Fed stops tightening in a cycle—is around 2.5 to 3 percent, a lot lower than many people expect.

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February 13, 2015

CNBC: Good Run Ahead for the US Economy

The rate of wage growth and falling unemployment indicate that we've now moved from a recovery into a self-sustained expansion that will likely last for the next two or three years, says Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO of Guggenheim Partners.

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February 13, 2015

When Patience Disappears

Market observers keen to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next move are wise to follow the trail of verbal breadcrumbs laid down by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a policymaker I hold in high regard. When Fed policy seems uncertain or even inert, Dr. Bullard’s public statements have historically been a Rosetta stone for deciphering the Fed’s next move.

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February 05, 2015

The Good News Behind GDP's Decline

On Friday, it was announced that U.S. gross domestic product rose an annualized 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter—a marked slowdown from the 5 percent growth we witnessed in the third quarter of 2014. But what the market took to be bad news was actually a sign of economic strength.

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January 30, 2015

Good Company, Bad Stock

The U.S. economy is in the best shape out of any economy in the world, but it reminds me of a great business with a bad stock. Despite its underlying economic strength, I believe U.S. equity markets are likely to underperform those of less healthy economies in the long run. When I look around the world at economies that have many more problems than the United States, I see more upside potential for equity valuations and market performance in places like Europe, China and India.

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January 23, 2015

The Consumption of Davos

The European Central Bank’s announcement of quantitative easing quickly became the consuming topic at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting. While I view this as arguably the most monumental event in the history of the European Union, the question remains whether it will be enough to stimulate Europe’s flagging economy.

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January 23, 2015

FOX Business: Minerd Says Buy Europe Over The U.S.

Guggenheim Partners Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses European Central Bank action and where the value is in today’s market. Minerd also shares insights on Treasuries in an interview with Fox Business News’ Maria Bartiromo.

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January 22, 2015

WSJ: Minerd Lauds QE as ECB’s ‘Monumental’ Moment

The European Central Bank's announcement of some form of quantitative easing is a “monumental” moment for the bank said Guggenheim Partners Global CIO Scott Minerd. He spoke with WSJ’s Francesco Guerrera at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

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