Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provides investors with economic and policy analyses and assessments of their potential impacts on asset prices.


 
Market Perspectives

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

While the market will remain volatile and likely lead to a period of outright panic, that is when having a “cool head” will pay off.

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Macro View

Complacency in Uncharted Waters

The next challenge for central bankers is changing monetary policy when the economy has come to depend on it.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook – April 2016

While spreads have since narrowed, we are still finding bargains in high-yield bonds and bank loans.

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Media Appearance

CNBC: Central Banks In a Box

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, explains why the central banks in developed economies are getting trapped in current monetary policy, including negative interest rates and quantitative easing.

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Portfolio Strategy

Fixed-Income Outlook: First Quarter 2016

In our new quarterly publication, the leaders of our fixed-income investment team discuss relative value and the economic outlook in current market conditions.

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Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.

 
 

Recent Perspectives

March 17, 2016

Non-Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities: Strong Credit Performance, Favorable Supply Dynamics

Credit fundamentals and market supply dynamics provide a tailwind for non-Agency RMBS.

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March 17, 2016

Rates: Risk, But Not Much Reward

With higher yields and shorter durations, Agency bonds represent better value than U.S. Treasurys in 2016.

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March 17, 2016

Municipals: Strong Fundamentals Despite Headline Risk

With the exception of well-known problem credits, such as Puerto Rico and Chicago, fundamentals in the municipal bond market remain strong.

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March 17, 2016

Investment-Grade Corporate Credit: Higher Yields for Strong Convictions

Widening spreads and higher yields in investment-grade corporates presents opportunities to add selectively to positions where our credit conviction remains unchanged.

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February 23, 2016

The Great Recession Scare of 2016

Our research tells us that beyond this spike in energy defaults fundamental conditions are copacetic, yet the markets and policymakers are reacting as if recession or full-blown financial crisis were at the gates, if not already upon us. Investors should remember that a market decline does not necessarily portend a recession. For those of us who remember, after the market crash of October 1987 the next U.S. recession was still two years away, creating a great buying opportunity.

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February 05, 2016

The Endgame for Oil

In the fourth quarter of 2014, I asserted that a barrel of oil would average $45 during 2015 and 2016. Given the nature of the growing supply glut and OPEC’s unwillingness to cooperate on reducing output, I also projected that there was risk of a spike down to $25 per barrel before prices would stabilize. While far from consensus, my pessimism at the time now smacks of optimism. Today, looking at the market fundamentals in place, I believe we have reached a new point in the global energy story: The endgame in the decline of the price of oil.

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January 28, 2016

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.

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January 27, 2016

El Niño Could Add $30 Billion to U.S. Economy

Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research team believes that as the massive El Niño weather pattern gains strength, it should become a boon to the U.S. economy, potentially adding 1.5 percent to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter.

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January 21, 2016

Storm Clouds Over Davos

Policymakers have precious little time to address the issue and bring this current debt episode to an orderly end. Historical evidence of success in resolving these types of issues is sparse. Quite simply, the world is in trouble and the leaders at Davos know it.

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January 20, 2016

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

Panic is a key indicator of a market bottom. Panic is associated with sharp increases in trading volumes as investors fearing further decline seek to liquidate positions. That kind of selling causes volatility to spike, as price movements accelerate to the downside. None of this has been associated with the decline to the start of 2016, which tells me we have more downside before we see bottom.

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