February 05, 2016
The Endgame for Oil
In the fourth quarter of 2014, I asserted that a barrel of oil would average $45 during 2015 and 2016. Given the nature of the growing supply glut and OPEC’s unwillingness to cooperate on reducing output, I also projected that there was risk of a spike down to $25 per barrel before prices would stabilize. While far from consensus, my pessimism at the time now smacks of optimism. Today, looking at the market fundamentals in place, I believe we have reached a new point in the global energy story: The endgame in the decline of the price of oil.