Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provides investors with economic and policy analyses and assessments of their potential impacts on asset prices.


 
Market Perspectives

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

While the market will remain volatile and likely lead to a period of outright panic, that is when having a “cool head” will pay off.

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Macro View

The Endgame for Oil

Market fundamentals suggest we have reached a new point in the global energy story.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - January 2016

Today’s markets test the strongest convictions, but we believe it is a passing storm.

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Media Appearance

CNBC: “Better Values” Beyond U.S. Stocks

While global tailwinds continue to dog the markets, Global CIO Scott Minerd tells CNBC that this is not 2008, but rather an “interesting” time to invest.

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Portfolio Strategy

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

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Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.

 
 

Recent Perspectives

October 23, 2015

China's Currency Conundrum

There is a striking discontinuity of thinking about the greatest economic headwind facing the world today: the slowdown in China. Investors seem to universally agree that China will continue to weigh on the global economy until it devalues its currency, yet few think such an adjustment is likely anytime soon. Passive Chinese policymaking can provide a more benign environment for risk assets in the short term, but ultimately, it holds back the world’s second largest economy and, consequently, global growth.

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October 14, 2015

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - October 2015

While volatility in credit markets may not yet be over, we believe now is the time to look for new high-yield and bank loan investment opportunities.

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September 15, 2015

The Fed's Dilemma

Twice in the past 30 years the U.S. Federal Reserve has faced the prospect of prematurely abandoning tightening during market turmoil. Today, global currency devaluations, market volatility, and plunging commodity prices have trapped the Fed in a similar policy dilemma.

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August 24, 2015

A Painful but Healthy Adjustment for Risk Assets

The recent global equity market selloff reflects a long-awaited—and I believe ultimately healthy—market correction. A number of commentators speculated that after Monday morning’s sharp decline in U.S. stocks, the intra-day reversal indicated that we reached a bottom. In the very short run, I would agree. However, longer term, neither fundamental nor technical data support that we have reached the levels of capitulation associated with the end of a market correction.

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August 21, 2015

Pressure Mounts on China to Act

More bad news out of Asia: Chinese manufacturing conditions are back at the same levels as they were at the height of the financial crisis in 2009, a clear sign that China’s economy is slowing. We all know the dramatic steps that were necessary to revive the Chinese economy in 2009—a 4 trillion renminbi (RMB) stimulus package, equivalent to about 12 percent of China’s annual gross domestic product at the time. China will need to take drastic action again, and to a greater degree than it has done in recent weeks.

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August 17, 2015

Fundamental Truths

Last week, China loosened control of its currency, resulting in its biggest one-day loss in two decades, compounded by additional losses over the following days. As of this writing, the renminbi has depreciated by close to 3 percent since the start of last week. This “surprise” move roiled markets and triggered concern that other central banks would follow suit, but the reality is that the fundamentals were so overwhelming that the People’s Bank of China’s action was practically unavoidable.

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August 07, 2015

Keep Your Powder Dry

Market volatility tends to move higher in late summer as trading volumes get thinner. During these testing times, economic news tends to have a bigger psychological impact, not just on investors, but also on consumer confidence. Recent data points highlight just how fragile consumer sentiment can be.

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July 31, 2015

China's Dilemma: Is it 1987 or 1929?

Whether the current period becomes known as China’s version of 1929’s Black Thursday in the United States or a much healthier scenario analogous to 1987’s Black Monday, now depends very much on the strategy its policymakers adopt over the next few months. For China’s sake, I hope it is the latter, but at this point investors should take note that the world’s second-largest economy could just as likely find itself at the epicenter of this century’s greatest equity market correction.

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July 21, 2015

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

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July 17, 2015

Rates Must Rise to Avert Next Crisis

Policymakers have created a Wicksellian dilemma where investment spurred by low interest rates is driving economic growth, but these inefficient investments support growth at the expense of lower productivity in the economy.

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