Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.


 
Market Perspectives

Rates Must Rise to Avert Next Crisis

Policymakers have created a Wicksellian dilemma where investment spurred by low interest rates is driving economic growth, but these inefficient investments support growth at the expense of lower productivity in the economy.

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Macro View

A Painful but Healthy Adjustment for Risk Assets

The source of the current market correction is the massive misalignment of exchange rates, which finds its roots in quantitative easing.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - July 2015

The energy sector represents an attractive opportunity to invest in high yielding securities, but investors must consider the sector specific first- and second-order effects of depressed energy prices.

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Media Appearance

Video: Sources of Yield in a Low-Rate World

Pockets of opportunity still exist in select fixed-income asset classes, Guggenheim Partners Chairman of Investments and Global CIO Scott Minerd explains to CNBC’s Brian Sullivan at the recent Milken Conference.

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Portfolio Strategy

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

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Latest Videos

Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd and his investment team share insights on investment opportunities around the world, U.S. monetary policy and new areas of economic development in this series of videos and media appearances.

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Recent Perspectives

June 19, 2015

Connecting the Dots

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee expressed a more dovish outlook for the long term, but one that clearly puts September in the crosshairs for an interest rate hike after six long years at the zero bound. In the meantime, we are becoming vulnerable to some sort of summer risk-off trade. At this stage, it would be prudent to prepare for a risk-off period by the opportunistic liquidation of lower-quality high yield and bank loans, which have appreciated in price this year, and selectively taking gains in stocks while increasing holdings in cash and Treasury securities, as a precaution in preparation of a potential looming summer dislocation.

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June 05, 2015

Against this Rosy Backdrop

As expected, the second quarter bounce back has taken hold. The rebound in U.S. growth is supported by continued employment and wage growth and tailwinds from lower energy prices over the past 12 months. Add a stable dollar and the rebounding European economy into the mix and even exports should help to keep U.S. growth on track. But against this rosy backdrop, bond yields have risen more than I would have expected and seasonals have turned against stocks.

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May 15, 2015

Strange Machinations

The shock of just 0.2 percent GDP growth for the first quarter should have driven rates down. Since 2010, GDP disappointments like this have led 10-year Treasury yields to fall by 5.5 basis points on average in the two days following the release. This time around, the opposite occurred—yields rose by double that, and continued to rise. Many have speculated about what caused this sell off because it was so out of line with what one would expect following a surprisingly weak GDP print. I think the reason had more to do with what was happening in Europe than what was going on in the U.S. economy. European bond market volatility has been extreme. Violent convulsions like these are not based on fundamental changes but relate to technical factors resulting from market distortions created by quantitative easing and macroprudential policy. Similarly, the backup in U.S. rates is likely a result of market machinations.

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May 08, 2015

Dog Days of the U.S. Expansion

The U.S. economic expansion is now over 70 months old and is entering its mature phase, having already exceeded the average length of prior cycles of 57 months. There are still some golden, halcyon summer days ahead and it would be premature to put on our winter clothes just yet. However, when all is said and done, the easy money in this expansion has already been made and investors should be thinking about the winter to come.

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April 30, 2015

Where Is the Prudence in Macroprudential Policy?

While you may not be familiar with the concept of macroprudential policy, it is one of the most important factors in determining the long-term growth potential of the U.S. economy and the ability for all its citizens to share in that growth. Without significant adjustment, actions taken by policymakers today may come at a great cost to future generations.

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April 24, 2015

Sine of the Times

For the past 30 years, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have shown a clear downward linear trend, falling from over 10 percent in 1985 to less than 2 percent today. If we assume the secular, linear downward trend in yields will continue in the near term, the model currently predicts rates will bottom at 0.82 percent in March 2016. I am not necessarily predicting that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields will test zero, but there are many powerful secular and fundamental forces at work that signal the risk to U.S. interest rates remains to the downside.

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April 14, 2015

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - April 2015

How high yield bonds and bank loans can help investors position for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate tightening cycle.

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April 10, 2015

‘It’s the Weather…!’

Severe weather conditions have had a profound impact on economic activity in the United States. When you look at the data, the winter ravages in first quarter are clear. Consumer spending declined in December and January, and was basically flat in February, while nonfarm payrolls were up by just 126,000 in March—the smallest gain since December 2013. Based on our analysis of retail sales, industrial production, and government spending, I wouldn’t be surprised to see U.S. economic growth near zero or even negative in the first quarter.

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March 26, 2015

The Monetary Illusion

As economic growth returns again to Europe and Japan, the prospect of a synchronous global expansion is taking hold. Or, then again, maybe not. In a recent research piece published by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, global economic growth, as measured in nominal U.S. dollars, is projected to decline in 2015 for the first time since 2009, the height of the financial crisis. In fact, the prospect of improvement in economic growth is largely a monetary illusion.

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March 20, 2015

Euro: Parity Like It’s 1999

While Europe stands to benefit as the euro nears parity, the U.S. economy faces some tough sledding in the weeks ahead due to seasonal distortions. In the early months of 2014, key economic data points were negatively impacted by an extended winter cold snap and I expect a similar scenario to play out in 2015. However, the prospects for U.S. equities and credit remain strong this year and recent weakness represents a buying opportunity.

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