Our Perspectives

Market Perspectives

Where Is the Prudence in
Macroprudential Policy? 

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Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly
Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.

Market Perspectives

Where Is the Prudence in Macroprudential Policy?

Well-intended regulations that limit access to capital could be another crisis in the making.

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Weekly Macro View

Sunny with a Chance of Turbulence

Despite a generally positive outlook, Grexit fears, the onset of a rate hike, negligible asset appreciation, and a high level of complacency are cause for concern.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - April 2015

How high yield bonds and bank loans can help investors position for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate tightening cycle.

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Media Appearances

Video: Schwartz on Capital Markets

Alan Schwartz, Executive Chairman of Guggenheim Partners, discusses how companies are using capital today, and M&A activity.

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Portfolio Strategy

The ABCs of ABS: Opportunities in Asset-Backed Securities

In the search for yield, ABS offers an opportunity to generate higher returns through rigorous analysis, unaccompanied by additional credit or interest-rate risk.

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Latest Videos

Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd and his investment team share insights on investment opportunities around the world, U.S. monetary policy and new areas of economic development in this series of videos and media appearances.


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Recent Perspectives

March 20, 2015

Euro: Parity Like It’s 1999

While Europe stands to benefit as the euro nears parity, the U.S. economy faces some tough sledding in the weeks ahead due to seasonal distortions. In the early months of 2014, key economic data points were negatively impacted by an extended winter cold snap and I expect a similar scenario to play out in 2015. However, the prospects for U.S. equities and credit remain strong this year and recent weakness represents a buying opportunity.

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March 12, 2015

This Too Shall Pass

Investors closely following the recent daily convulsions in the financial markets could be prone to overreaction. It never ceases to amaze me how a few days of sell-off in the stock market—or a modest back-up in rates, for that matter—can have everybody talking about bear markets. Looking beyond the myopic churn and burn, the important macro indicators remain positive, and nothing has occurred to fundamentally alter our positive outlook for equities or credit.

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March 05, 2015

The Great Monetary Expansion

While the United States is potentially headed toward a period marred by winter distortions, accommodative monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China, which cut its benchmark deposit and lending interest rates by 25 basis points last Saturday, provided further evidence—if any was needed—that the global economy will remain flush with liquidity for some time to come. The takeaway from this is that the great global monetary expansion is far from over and the outlook for stocks remains positive.

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February 26, 2015

Rate Hike Rally

The period before the Federal Reserve raises rates is historically a great time to invest in U.S. equities and credit. Over the past six tightening periods since 1980, the S&P 500 has returned 23.5 percent on average in the nine months prior to the first rate increase, and high-yield bonds and bank loans have outperformed investment-grade bonds by 4.0 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

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February 19, 2015

The Glass Ceiling on Rates

Once the Federal Reserve commences down the road of raising rates, how far will they ultimately go? Based on research we’ve conducted on the impact of higher rates on U.S. debt burden, it appears the terminal value for the federal funds rate—the point at which the Fed stops tightening in a cycle—is around 2.5 to 3 percent, a lot lower than many people expect.

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February 13, 2015

When Patience Disappears

Market observers keen to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next move are wise to follow the trail of verbal breadcrumbs laid down by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a policymaker I hold in high regard. When Fed policy seems uncertain or even inert, Dr. Bullard’s public statements have historically been a Rosetta stone for deciphering the Fed’s next move.

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February 05, 2015

The Good News Behind GDP's Decline

On Friday, it was announced that U.S. gross domestic product rose an annualized 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter—a marked slowdown from the 5 percent growth we witnessed in the third quarter of 2014. But what the market took to be bad news was actually a sign of economic strength.

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January 30, 2015

Good Company, Bad Stock

The U.S. economy is in the best shape out of any economy in the world, but it reminds me of a great business with a bad stock. Despite its underlying economic strength, I believe U.S. equity markets are likely to underperform those of less healthy economies in the long run. When I look around the world at economies that have many more problems than the United States, I see more upside potential for equity valuations and market performance in places like Europe, China and India.

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January 23, 2015

The Consumption of Davos

The European Central Bank’s announcement of quantitative easing quickly became the consuming topic at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting. While I view this as arguably the most monumental event in the history of the European Union, the question remains whether it will be enough to stimulate Europe’s flagging economy.

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January 16, 2015

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

At current levels of overvaluation, the only factors holding interest rates down are the expectation of declining inflation as a result of the oil shock and the prospect of quantitative easing in Europe. This means we may be facing the old Wall Street adage of “buy the rumor, sell the news” when it comes to Treasury prices. Once the one-time effect of declining oil prices has passed, inflation is likely to return to the underlying trend, which is higher than today. This, combined with European Central Bank announcement of quantitative easing, could mark the end of the recent spike down in interest rates.

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