Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly
Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.
January 08, 2015
High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - January 2015
While the U.S. economy remains strong, equity and credit markets are becoming increasingly susceptible to certain macro-driven risks, such as the decline in oil prices. Plunging oil prices have dimmed the outlook for the energy sector and have caused spread widening across investment-grade and high-yield U.S. fixed-income assets. While we believe risk of defaults in energy is limited in the near term, now is the time to monitor significant exposures that may cause underperformance in potentially worst-case scenarios.
December 23, 2014
Barron’s: Minerd Warns Fed Could Delay Hike Until 2016
Global economic pressures, from European disinflation to a strengthening dollar, could keep a lid on inflation and rates, says Guggenheim Partners Global CIO Scott Minerd. Minerd also shares insights on the European economy in an interview with Barron’s Jack Otter.
December 17, 2014
A Tale of Two Markets
Investors should prepare for an extended period of depressed oil prices—oil still has substantial downside room to run before reaching a level of stability. As oil continues its decline, pressure is increasingly mounting on credit markets, especially high-yield corporate bonds, where energy-related borrowers represent 15-20 percent of the market. The flip side is that as spreads widen, we get closer to the levels where large investors start to see value.
December 11, 2014
Oil, Roil, and Turmoil
The behavior of global financial markets this week could be characterized as “oil, roil, and turmoil.” The free fall in oil has equities under pressure and bonds rallying. The recent price action is betraying that we potentially have something darker and more sinister on our hands than we may have thought just a few weeks ago. If things play out as we suspect, both interest rates and oil prices will head meaningfully lower in the near term.
December 09, 2014
Guggenheim Discusses Why Falling Oil, Russia, May Hurt S&P Earnings
Guggenheim Global CIO Scott Minerd talks to FOX Opening Bell about the investment principles guiding Guggenheim’s 5-star flagship fixed income mutual funds, the dark side to the fall in oil prices, the economic crisis in Russia, and the likely effect on S&P 500 earnings next year.
December 05, 2014
CNBC: Scott Minerd’s Macro Viewpoints
Guggenheim Global CIO Scott Minerd joins CNBC Squawk Box to discuss the impact of falling oil prices, challenges facing the European Central Bank as it struggles to spur economic recovery, and the likely effect of deflationary pressures overseas on U.S. multinationals’ earnings.
December 04, 2014
The Dark Side to Falling Oil Prices
Russia needs oil at $100 a barrel to support its economy, and many other oil-dependent economies rely on oil prices well north of current levels. A recession in countries such as Russia will have significant knock-on effects, particularly for European exporters, creating another headwind for the beleaguered euro zone economies. An oil-price-induced negative feedback loop would stifle global growth and could even lead to political instability in any number of oil-dependent nations.
November 20, 2014
Falling Gas Prices Fuel Holiday Cheer
The domestic economy will benefit from the consumer spending power released by the decline in gasoline prices as well as rising equity prices. Despite the positive backdrop for the nation’s economy, though, the current rally in U.S. equities has still not been confirmed in the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line. The next few weeks will determine whether the current rally is sustainable.
November 07, 2014
'Risk On' for Now
U.S. high-yield bonds, leveraged credit, and equities will likely outperform in the coming months, but there are obstacles ahead.
October 29, 2014
Europe Must Act Now
Things in Europe are bad and policymakers appear already to have fallen behind the curve. Quantitative easing in Europe is coming, but too slowly to avert a severe slowdown and perhaps even a hard landing. Mario Draghi, ECB president, has made it clear that the ECB must increase its balance sheet by at least €1 trillion—a tough mandate as the balance sheet will continue to shrink in the coming year as the earlier longer-term refinancing operation assets roll off. The reality is the ECB will need to purchase at least another €1.5 trillion in assets, and even that may not be enough.
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